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|20 feb 2019|
íiÓhael Delyagin: Listen to AdviÓes of the Power and Do StriÓtly on the Contrary!
éÓÔÏÞÎÉË: Mir Novostey
Whether here will be devaluation? What are its criteria?
- It is very characteristic for present time: at first to ask whether this or that even will happen and only then to ask people are talking about.
There’s no clear boundary between frightening "devaluation" and habitual "weakening of ruble”. Let’s say decrease in ruble exchange rate by 10% a day is, certainly, devaluation, in two months – "smooth easing", while intermediate options are treated by experts and the more so commentators as they like.
Though we used to hear about decrease in a course by three kopeks a day as about "landslide devaluation threatening to destroy finally reeled fundamentals of our economy". Nothing Óould be done here – Unified State Examinations and liberal education reform in general do slowly their bit: many already lost ability to read and think, but can still speak and even write.
I believe that ruble will become stronger a little before New Year as it usually happens and will be rather stable till the end of the Óoming year if political, infrastructural and especially sports risks of the ruling and owning Russian party won’t get realized at the Olympic Games as it is important for maintenance of its image.
After its end ruble "will drop", by my estimates, not less than by 10%.
- Why ruble turns sour in front of our eyes, what caused this proÓess?
- State policy, from my point of view.
First of all, the state actually held aloof from ensuring stability of the currency market. It only "smoothes fluctuations" of the course, though it did it not regularly. As a result economy is assigned to free game of allegedly market and actually frankly speculative forces which do practically what they want.
Unlike a number of more perspicacious states (like faultlessly market of Great Britain) our state even in conditions of crisis doesn't provide possibility of restriction of free movement of the speculative capitals.
In this situation the course is in fact managed by expectations of speculators and in Russia which economic growth is being steadily slowed down throughout more than one and a half years and can turn into recession soon these expectations are unambiguously negative.
Basic refusal of the state of development and massive export of budget money abroad leads to flight of capital which also promotes weakening of ruble.
At last criminal joining to the WTO on obviously crushing terms deprived the state of opportunity to maintain competitiveness of economy following any other way except devaluation, more than ten years ago liberal and propagandist of the WTO Yasin openly spoke about it.
Already now many seemingly prospering enterprises in Siberia pass to four and even three-day working week. That it won’t "chose China" in already foreseeable future, it should be given chance to survive and it means weakening of ruble.
- If something in economy or policy Óan happen to strengthen its positions? For example, the Olympic Games in Sochi?
- The Olympic Games will temporarily suspend its weakening. Probably, something can happen: high-quality rise in price of oil, for example, or transition of ruling party from strategy of plundering of the Soviet inheritance to strategy of development of the country. Though events of this sort are improbable.
- What will be the Óourse at the end of this – in the beginning of the next year? What will happen with dollar and euro rates?
- Most likely, dollar will become a little stronger in relation to euro: now the course of the last "is lifted up" excessively for the eÓonomy of eurozone and positive statistics in Spain is not a sign of the end of eurocrisis.
Ruble, as I told you, will become a little stronger by New Year.
- What in connection with falling of ruble exchange rate Óould be advised to ordinary citizens?
- To listen to our officials and leaders more attentively. If they start swearing stability of the currency market, speaking about the forthcoming strengthening of ruble and agitating for investments into it, from my point of view, it is a terrible sign: most likely ruble is just about to weaken and it is necessary to manage "to jump out" of it.
I don’t advise to make investment into gold: on the one hand, the margin of commercial banks for investment coins is even higher than 18% of VAT which is Óharged from physical gold, on the other, there appeaed messages that investment coins sold by Sberbank rust, that is are counterfeit. It is information from Runet, it isn't checked, but, considering reputation of Sberbank, I don't see anything improbable in it.
Therefore if you have something, store your savings in dollars and eur and, it is desirable, in the state bank. Though until the end of the Olympic Games you can feel yourself patriot and "to support" ruble. The main thing, don't forget: exchange rate is derivative first of all from quality of public administration, so we shouldn't rely on strong ruble in the near future.
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