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How Much Does "Stability" Cost in Russia?
Sergey Israpilov 11.12.2013
Russia was among leaders on the total amount of gross domestic product and entered the number of counties with average standard of living for one and a half decades of economic growth. At the same time, economic progress doesn't guarantee political stability any longer. Absolutely new concept of safety is necessary to the country. Here you are, for example, problem: social base of people who are objectively interested in crash of the Russian state appeared.
It seems that despite all declarations achievement of political stability in Russia remained unattainable dream. The Russian power which by its actions or inaction compelled people to wish disintegration of a system is guilty.
Unfortunately, in today’s country there’s no class which can be called social base of the power. While it is possible to list effortlessly those who can make social base of political explosion. Those who are objectively interested in radical destabilization of the situation.
These people aren't enemies of Russia. The only thing that can help them is radical destabilization of situation despite their personal attitude to the country, to the power, to the leading politicians.
The most important problem which every mode should take into consideration is people who live below the poverty line. There are about 16 million such people in Russia. Though the number of poor people for years of growth of economy decreased, it still remains critically high. Poverty in Russia is chronic, often defined not by personal qualities of a person, but by such factors as place of residence: city or region of the Federation. Therefore there’s no rational way out from poverty in Russia.
There are also people whose level of living strongly worsened owing to nonfeasance of the power which allowed overheat in the credit market. Today 5 million from 40 million Russians debtors are hopeless debtors. Bailiffs already came or will come to them. They will take sometimes from their simple property away, including elementary household appliances, furniture, stocks of products. Human dignity will be humiliated having minced through Moloch of judicial and executive system. Already nothing can help these people, the more so new law on bankruptcy written from dictation of banks. 5 million people not, by the way, the most needing or fallen will suffer because of errors of the authorities.
In fact, unlucky borrowers found themselves in the same conditions as prisoners of the Russian prisons. These also should hope that "jails will fall". Having realized critical number of the Russians sitting in prisons, the authorities managed to lower their number from 1 million to 0,6 million for one year. 2,5 million more are under examination or just served sentence and hardly can be considered hot supporters of the Russian state.
There are about one million people who follow radical current in Islam in Russia. The number of these people promptly grows at simultaneous reduction of the number of "traditional believing" Muslims. A part of this million already participates in operations against the Russian power in the Caucasus.
There are about 4 million unemployed in Russia. In some regions of the country unemployment is a real scourge.
According to official figures there are 8,5 million addicts, that is they permanently pose a threat both to people around and to the state. As a matter of fact, their only chance to get rid of dependence is to combine personal "withdrawal sickness" with the crash of all society when there will be no money to buy drugs and no place to do it.
Psychological and mental disorders are separate theme. We have 1.3 million people having disability due to mental diseases in Russia today. In reality millions people can be inclined to destruction owing to peculiarities of different mental state.
Certainly, hopeless debtors and unemployed don't prepare to storm barricades round the Kremlin. Just that fact that 40 million people can wish death to the Russian state in no way promotes political stability.
Besides not only those who are going to attack, but also those who are indifferent pose danger.
By experience of countries of "Arab spring" or by experience of the USSR we see that disintegration of the state happens not so much because someone strongly wants to destroy it, but because society experiences apathy and political indifference. Thus none of citizens went to save the Soviet Union, at that 5 million military men, 2 million militiamen, 20 million members of CPSU, etc swore on oath.
"Everything is ok" with apathy in modern Russia as well. 11 million migrants are in the country, they surely won't fall down for the Russian state. 23 million old men and small children: these won't be able to rescue, even if they wish. Tens million people more are "without roots", they are childless or divorced, nothing keeps them in the native land. There’s also huge number of anti-patriotic people whose main dream is "to get out from Russia”…
Russia needs new concept of the national security where the power will rely though on some social support. Now one million Russian officials with their children and family members is the only social base of the authorities. Not so many...
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