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«Cease Fire», Mobilization of Militia – What’s Next?
Tatyana Volkova 11.06.2014
As a result of pressure put upon Putin in Normandy by the European leaders Petro Poroshenko made mysterious statement about need of ceasefire. None of the scenarios of probable succession of events provides such opportunity, however, the statement was made for the first time after beginning of so-called anti-terrorist operation. Naturally there is a question what its purpose is?
Mr. Poroshenko needs to be staffed animal, to enter somehow the European Union. Whether achievement of this task is possible has no value while he believes in its feasibility, and the European partners don't unsell him in it. It isn't important also that such step will be deadly to the Ukrainian economy. Mr. Poroshenko doesn't produce steel or cars (Poroshenko owns production of busses “Bogdan” and shipbuilding plants one of which is situated in the Crimea – it’s difficult to consider it assets, pure passive - editor's note). He is absolutely indifferent what the borders of Ukraine will be for that moment. The main thing is that they include Kiev and Vinnytsia.
To be more precise, the former Kiev confectionery named after K. Marx, Vinnitskaya confectionery and Vinnytsky milk canning plant. If there is such need, it’s possible to sacrifice Mariupol and Kremenchug confectioneries to enter the European market as full fledged competitor of such players as even "Nestlé", at least in discounters.
Average salary in the Swiss economy almost thirty times exceeds the Ukrainian one, at that final ruin of the Ukrainian economy and connected with it growth of unemployment in the country will serve to strengthening of competitiveness of “Roshen" due to additional decrease in costs for salary. Removal of customs barriers of the European Union will immediately increase capitalization of “Roshen”. By the most modest assessment by three times.
Thus, it is a question of billion euro in favor of Poroshenko's family and high lifelong personal status considerably exceeding honor to be called the president of Ukraine. Eventually, it is a question of business of all Mr. Poroshenko’s life and he would be ready to accept all conditions of the Europeans with pleasure, though he can’t. Prospects of his success are in the hands of the Europeans; prospects of his falling - in the hands of the Americans: they can easily displace him from the post. Certainly, end result is in the hands of the Kremlin.
However in the given case some tactical interests coincided. Strategically the USA are interested in escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, as well as in kindling of other fires at the borders of Europe to tire it out into suffocating embraces of the USA. Irreversible processes occurring in the world economy threaten to deprive this country of its status of the "superstate" parasitizing on others in the near future. Or, if you want, collecting tribute from all over the world.
Despite terrible debts position of the United States is not yet hopeless, though rescue will demand titanic efforts and present administration in every way seeks to distract its nation from seeing it, while it’s not too late. Key figures of the White House supervise operators not even for a fall, but for destruction by "political bears" who dream to become world supersoligarches as a result of falling if the USA.
As the hero of "Gone with the Wind" Rhett Butler used to say: "The majority of people for some reason can't comprehend that it’s possible to earn on the crash of civilization not less money, than on its creation". People standing behind the White House present minority which understand it perfectly well.
Ultimate goal of heads of these few, far not many multinational corporations in the Ukrainian events is conclusion of the enslaving economic contract of the USA with Europe that would stretch crash process, immediate goal is to earn at the expense of the Europeans on destruction and then on partial restoration of Ukraine. Thus in the process of solving of this or that task no damage should caused to achievement of the main goal facing these multinational corporations.
Succession of events in Ukraine can be serious hazard to them. Unlike Afghanistan, Libya and other similar countries, in this case it is a question of invasion into the sphere of interests of Russia. Barack Obama already blabbed out, having called Russia "the regional power". We got used that when it is required to say frank nonsense, similar task is usually fulfilled by someone of lower level like John Kerry, however even he didn't dare to call the powers possessing both the weapon, capable to destroy all planet, and means of its delivery to every point "regional".
Unlike Libya and Afghanistan, Russia also possesses reconnaissance services of a world class which perfectly well understands and attentively traces the events. If Putin considers it necessary, he is capable to strike "against staffs" at any time, having opened eyes of the European leaders or world community on the essence of occurring events.
To raise a hip of questions, it is enough to draw unostentatiously attention to attempt to perform silent "palace revolution" in CIA which takes place now. Why this organization attracting to service, as a rule, carriers of traditional American values is operated by people very far from them, unless it’s impossible to clean the ranks? Who stands behind it? What’s their purpose? To involve the USA in the conflict with the world nuclear power? For the sake of whose interests?
That, it seems, nonsense which Obama pronounced is a part of forming of the line of protection in this case. The congress should declare that Russia doesn’t differ from the same Syria therefore it is possible to treat it this way. Nevertheless, customers already scented danger of revealing and made order to inter tactical amendments.
It is very difficult for the Europeans to sell use of army against population. It is possible to call similar activity "anti-terrorist operation" by a stretch of imagination and in absolutely certain situations. If, for example, certain group holds hostages, and the police has no forces or means for their release, it is possible to attract small army division possessing necessary skills to solve this concrete task, though in this case it’s better to declare state of emergency to justify use of the army within the country which task is fight against external enemy.
It’s normal to use police, boundary police, National Guard to solve internal problems or at the worst to call it internal troops. There is also other way to use army in Donetsk and Lugansk areas not committing war crime: to recognize state sovereignty of DPR and LPR and then to find acceptable occasions to announce war with them not incurring charges in aggression which is also war crime.
Up to John Brennan's deprivation of functions as the head of the Ukrainian operation of CIA. Little attention was paid in that question to policy issues, not to mention international law. Brennan's deviant behavior served as the reason of his meteoric career as it provided his benefactors with control levers to him as the director and indirectly to the powerful intelligence service.
However clinical manifestations of deviant behavior at management of the large state bordering with four members of the European Union couldn't but cause bewilderment and even certain irritation of the Europeans, that, certainly, contradicted interests of the customers as it threatened all their operation directed against Europe.
As a result new heads of the Ukrainian operation introduced corresponding amendments into it. The director of the Group of political actions of SAD/NCS of the USA not simply allowed, but even recommended Petro Poroshenko "to meet requirements of the Europeans" and to talk about "ceasefire". Arsen Avakov was entrusted to replace temporarily on the Southeast battlefield where it is possible army divisions with the parts of the Ukrainian militia.
Army, certainly, won't be brought aside and as soon as the Europeans will calm down a little, the Group of special operations of SAD/NCS of the USA will create reason for further escalation of the conflict. For this purpose they still have set of opportunities: the next operation under false flag, use of provokers introduced into defense of the Southeast, or creation of own group from those militants who are ready to commission of large-scale bloody crimes.
New heads of the American operation in Ukraine, unlike old ones, won't start doing silly miscalculations, however their main mistake has been already made: instead of usual shell or poker games they decided to play chess with the Kremlin, offering it gambit: DPR with LPR instead of loss of speed in relations with Europe. One shouldn’t be international grand master to count further courses: as a result Europe will itself come to it.
As for Poroshenko's chances to achieve сomplete entry of "Roshen's" into the European market — it is a subject for separate reflection. He obviously doesn't consider several defining factors. Though it is his business, let him think about it.
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