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|21 jan 2020|
Step Back Is Necessary on June, 12th to Make Two Steps Forward in Autumn
Alexander Lebedev 05.06.2012
Misters-comrades! Friends! Calm down! I understand - summer. All woke up after hibernation. Emotions flow over the edge. But these are pure emotions. The main directing line of this admass emotion is one. What is happening there? How is it this year? Where will we take it? How will we keep it? May be there will be more this year?
This all is about a crop from country sites. Don’t run into illusions. Hundreds thousands people come to protest meetings, but even in Moscow it is less than tenth part of percent of the population of Russia. It is even not statistical error. It’s - at all my sympathies for the protesters – public misunderstanding.
Society is not on our part. It’s also the fact.
Thus it is necessary to say that society doesn't have sweet feelings to the power. Simply society “couldn’t care less” today. It is the fact. Society doesn't love the power, but even more it doesn't love shouters and upstarts. Society loves silence and goes to grow flowers. This reality doesn't suit either oppositionists, or the power. Though this is the main truth due to which civil was hasn’t started yet in our country.
To those who are 20 I will say that it’s good. In 1993 the same two parties tried to involve people in civil war, but they failed. People don’t trust the power and opposition. They are right in it. They have the rights and all possible proofs. That’s why I say that there’s no crisis of the power. Because it’s absent. They're ok. They don't have need to solve vital problems. They're ok. Nothing bad is ahead of the power.
I want the reader to ask to take admass fish tales, rumours away and to listen to reason. Many say that no modernization is going on in Russia. Is it bad? Is it loss and mistake of the power? Is it crisis? No! It’s not crisis. Simply the power never put such a task and accordingly nobody carries it out. So, what was not done can’t be considered as crisis. No mistakes can’t be made if nothing was done. They simply save system. It is quite reasonable.
12 years ago one of the ruling classes (elite groups, influential groups) on the basis of collapsing Yeltsin system created back bone of the new system which later received the name Putin's mode. They worked well, they evened everything that was in the constitution of Russia (today we have no right even to go to walk along the street without their consent). They created new base (system) at which everything is under their control. The system was made to be not only monopoly, corrupted, but also closed. Thus as a result it received one more distinctive feature – it’s self-restoring and independent.
That's the way we have it today. Today contrary to all shouts 90% of the population of the country is living following it. Its slogan is simple – pay and sleep easily. The most part of inhabitants agrees with it and is ready to protect this system. While – supporting election campaign, vote against reason but for stably bad life. Because stably bad life during all 20 century is a secret of stability of our state.
Once in 1991 inhabitant tried to change the Soviet stability for the Russian one and understood that he was mistaken. It cost a lot. No one wants the second time. The majority speaks: let it be badly, than nohow. They can be understood. After all it’s genetic code of the nation which we got from last generations. Fear and desire that nobody touched them personally.
In my opinion, this problem is more feasible than fight against corruption and Putin's mode. It’s difficult to be solved in principle. Years will pass to do it.
Today's opposition isn't necessary even to the power …
It is impossible to deny that fact that the first peace revolution in the modern history of Russia happened after December, 10, 2011, it ended with the birth of a new social class – city dissatisfied or bearers of white ribbons. At that it is impossible to deny that opposition failed to convert civil enthusiasm of December, 10th into political dividends.
Why it was not possible? Firstly, historical predeterminacy. The first revolution in Russia always is intermediate. Though in our case it hasn’t brought to the power of new bourgeois, by a twist of fate it only gave the authorities time to regroup and to come to their senses from shock after December, 10th.
Secondly. Opposition approached that period completely not ready. It is rather possible to say that snow revolution remained without leaders at presence of several small groups. There were no leaders. All hopes to find them during the course of those events appeared illusion. They quarreled and dispersed. Thus opinion that there’s no sense in uniform organization and uniform leader prevailed. It is a big mistake which in the middle of 2012 brought opposition to final crash. It finally led movement to become street option with marginal shade. Similar succession of events never found and won't find national support in Russia.
Thirdly. Absence of accurate program and clear, understandable to the population slogans. All that led opposition to the thesis that it gathers on the streets as it’s eager to get the power.
Fourthly. Total absence of opposition on places. Movement doesn't go to regions, it doesn't work in the Moscow regions, it doesn't create local organizations, it doesn't participate in problems of simple inhabitants. It means this movement has no support in masses, it has spontaneous character and is doomed to defeat.
The main provocation happens on June, 12 and it will sharply damage the country. It is difficult to write about it. It hurts a lot. But, if organizers won't coordinate action on June, 12th with the Moscow authorities - next slaughter will take place. After this action its leaders will be put into prison not for 15 days, but for several years. Attempt of democratization of the country will be again rejected for decades. Then Russia will surely appear the last in the turn of the whole world.
It is clear, that no normal organizational work has been carrying out. Thus it’s already the beginning of summer and the majority of Muscovites are in the country. Elective peak has been already passed. It is clear that unauthorized demonstration will end with collisions with police, victims and repressions from the part of the power. A question appears then. What is it?
All these are clear now and are clear also to organizers. But they still go on it. It means that they are either mentally ill people. However, they don’t look like that. Or it is a question of something terrible. If it’s not that case as on January, 9, 1905?
In senses it is possible to suggest to have action in front of Sakharov Center or on some other square having coordinated it with the power. Today it is impossible to give the authorities motive to end up with all opposition. I suggest to think it over. While there’s still time. Thus I will remind that the power possesses force which won't allow any breaks. Opposition doesn’t have such force. It is necessary to work over one’s abilities and to get prepared for autumn. There will be forces then. Masses will appear. It is necessary to be able to make a step back to make two steps forward. It’s criterion of mature opposition.
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