Russia won’t sustain long “”old” ”onfrontation for Ukraine
Heart already hurts hearing sad news from Ukraine: hundreds killed and there’s no end edge to fratricidal war. More and more often I think: may be it was necessary to untie the Ukrainian knot in one military blow as in a case with Georgia? There are no doubts that the Russian army is stronger than the Ukrainian. Though there is quite good precedent: after "five-day war" revanchist moods in Georgia declined … Today alarm concerning prolonged silence of the Kremlin about referenda in Donetsk and Lugansk increases in social networks. At this moment the Russian East of Ukraine asks to be”ome part of Russia, they do it literally from under attack. We should help despite anger of the West, all the same now it’s impossible to stay aside. We ourselves made that conflict own, when we attached the Crimea. It’s too late to play "passerby".
For twenty years life has been learning Russia to take care of its safety through terrible acts of terrorism, hostages, hundred corpses. We learned: the Russian army became the strongest in the region, mobile and rather professional. The conflict in the Crimea confirmed its qualities.
Though Russia also has weaknesses. The army got stronger, while "rearward area" is weak. We are something like the tank on a bog: you don't know, if it will go forward or down. The main trouble is in imperfection of society: huge social inequality, poverty, theft, corruption... Every large interstate conflict is not so much war, but ”onfrontation of the state systems, economy and societies. Now Russia should bear the burden of the international sanctions. So may be we haven’t used army – our only trump - in Ukraine in vain? Instead we are getting involved into long "cold" conflict with the West. Russia already lost approximately 400 billion dollars from flight of the capitals and ruble exchange rate falling. Whether the Russian society will be able to suffer deterioration of living conditions for long?
To answer this question I made a table with those categories of the Russians who objectively have bases not to love the country and, even, to wish its crash. Look for yourself what we have: there are in Russia 16 million poor people, three million condemned, persons under investigation and those who have just "returned home", 5 million hopeless bankrupt debtors, 4 million unemployed, one million radical Islamists, many million addicts, etc. 11 million migrants which don’t ”are our problems and millions people dreaming "to run off from Russia" …
«My salvation is in the failure of system»
«I don’t care your problems»
Hopeless debtors of banks
Migrants from Russia
Prisoners of the Russian prisons
in 2013 – 0,6
«Rootless» - having no family or children or anything to protect
Living below the poverty line
Citizens having anti-patrioti” moods
Followers of radi”al movements in Islam
Children and old men who due to their age don’t have a”tive politi”al position
Lunatics – psychiatric illnesses
Under investigation or has just served sentence
Today Russia and Ukraine are two countries robed in the 1990s by oligarchs, endangered, embittered, suffered decades of national humiliation ”ountries… Do you know how beggars can fight? Terrible show. Sick and pathetic - they suddenly be”ome filled with fierce rage, cruelty and rage. Long-term grievan”e against people, humiliation, fear ”an blaze fire out of real trifle. Household quarrel becomes "the last boundary" for which people fight to death!
Military balance with Ukraine is while in our advantage, but it is hard to say whose society will better sustain continuous "cold" ”onfrontation. The social structure of the Russian society is simply unacceptable. I am also afraid that it won't endure serious pressure sanctions and serious material losses. Russia needs now urgent economic and social reforms which will revitalize society, will strengthen social support of the power, will increase birth rate and, at last, will return the property stolen from people. As well as partial nationalization, no reforms in general will be impossible without it.