If to remember my analogies with the Caribbean Crisis, now the Soviet ships with huge rockets belowdecks slowly turn away from Cuba and (imagination offering alternative variant of the story switches on here) perfect corps prepared by CIA from those who ran away from Castro strengthened by "volunteers" from marines-veterans and supported by aircraft and fire of a pair of cruisers lands on the beaches near to Havana... Bloody fight for each skyscraper starts.
If to return again to a question of Donetsk revolution, taking into account romantic mood of revolutionaries, I would compare present events with that form whi”h "National revolution" in Germany of 1933 would have, if the left wing of the movement of attack planes, oppositional to Hitler, won. Chaotic movement of good street fighters - without program, and the main thing without support of intellectuals and middle class.
The main sign of the real national revolution I consider the following one: appearance of a group of bright intellectuals becoming "nightingales of revolution" and festive character of the first victorious days. All that was present even in Khomeini's gloomy revolution of 1979. Only fighters with weapon hang around the city now. There’s even no meetings. Beirut-1975: crowds of armed cap-á-pie "heroes of the Palestinian revolution" walk around the city petrified with horror.
"Donbass revolution" didn't expand either to alternative Maidan, or to the slight parody of the national liberation movement of the Abkhazian, Karabakh, Chechen, Ingush, Ossetian, Irish or Palestinian type. In my opinion the reason is that it had no intellectuals among the tops, it wasn't matured by intellectuals, it didn't know if it’s alternative to anything, it had no myth, no own aim. Thus every town-district in Russia will demand independence if it’ll be promised to be fed.
Followers of Denikin continuing interrupted 95 years ago fight with Petliura in Donbass failed to tell anything intimate to the inhabitants of Odessa who imagined themselves either members of SMERSH chasing Banderovites, or members of the International Brigades who took the path of frankists. The Kremlin political strategists who got confused between "The Russian World" of Gundyaev and "The Fifth Empire" of Prokhanov couldn't give them anything the more so.
Two significant phenomena specify that "the Russian spring" had no significant socio-cultural support.
A huge number of talented and well-known intellectuals, workers of culture and art having roots in East Ukraine live or often visit Russia. However they didn't make anything even closely reminding let weak, but bright acts of pro-Maidan liberals, such as anti-war congress of intellectuals in Moscow in March or "Khodorkovsky's congress" in Kiev in April. Certainly, battalions and regiments of anti-liberal intellectuals supported Putin in March. But it was support of annexation of the Crimea: Art Center in Yalta, mountains, beaches, magnolia, port wine Massanda... While here there are only boring miners and chemical plants.
No mass organized political support to "battling patriots of Donbass". Neither from the part of Administration, nor from opposition. No meetings, no demonstrations, no pathetic pickets in Lavrushensky Pereulok. Just recollect support of Cuba and Vietnam from the part of the USSR. What solidarity with Chile and Nicaragua!
It was state solidarity, but participants of those meetings "in the working midday" really agreed with organizers of "morning prayers in defense of peace" in the main thing. Now people are indignant (I heard it myself on the street): the Ukrainians don't want to pay for gas, they want to have it free of charge.
However, the won Ukrainian revolution really considers sawn-off inhabitants of the Crimea and being torn away citizens of Donetsk stepsons. France deprived in 1871 of Alsace and Lorraine wouldn't block water. The same way Germany for 15 years deprived of Saar wouldn't do it. Blocked channel to the Crimea is recognition of the fact that inhabitants of the Crimea are considered traitors. From publicizing of fights in the cities of east Ukraine in the Ukrainian mass media: one doesn't speak about released compatriots like this, it ”ould be said so about those who tried to break "constitutional integrity". Well, familiar on two Chechen wars tone.
Behavior of the Kremlin is the most disgusting thing in this story. To encourage the Ukrainian East. To goad and incite, to force Kiev to start fights. Ad at the time of the beginning of general atta”k on Donetsk to de”lare: "We respect choice of the Ukrainian people". Then what was the reason of being proud of wrecking of elections. If Poroshenko is choice of the Ukrainian people, who people of East Ukraine are? If they are not stronghold of anti-fascism on the Ukrainian earth and not the Russian people eager to reunite with motherland, then who they are - the province revolted so that, using revolutionary confusion, to snatch itself more powers? The province of Katanga of 1961 with support of the Belgian mercenaries tying to escape from Congo (when Patrice Lumumba was killed and the plane of the UN Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold was brought down)? Panama of 1903 bursting forth from Colombia with friendly presen”e of the American fleet nearby? In a few words Putin relegated revolution to a fight for the power. It is interesting how he will comment the Abkhazian anti-criminal revolution - the second revolution for half a year near the Russian borders?
Sending of the Chechen "volunteers" to the east Ukraine became the biggest meanness.
First of all, breaking of the armed fighters to the other country with intention to fight with the army of this country is indisputable act of war. When could privates with weapon in hands ”ross the Russian state border?!
Secondly, and it is the main thing, the regiment of the Chechen special troops won't destroy the Ukrainian army, but now both the Ukrainians and the whole world knows that the Ukrainian troops are resisted not by insurgents with their idea of justice and self-respe”t, but gangs of foreign mercenaries; everything passed into a phase of the Ukrainian-Russian war, by the way, war whi”h is already lost by Russia.
Thirdly, now Russia has absolutely no arguments to criticize parti”ipation of the radical Islamists from the Sunni countries on the part of the Syrian opposition.
Some words about Russia. Emigration and diaspora are micromodels of country and people. Public processes go quicker there, they are mirror reflecting the future. Or they show alternative variant of history.
The Russian pre-military (anti-Bolshevist) emigration by its right radical evolution showed that only fascist mode could become alternative to Bolshevism (at preservation of former elite and systems of social communications).
Post-war (anti-Stalin) emigration by its prompt adaptation to the life in the West showed that if mass anti-communistic movement would have started after Stalin's death, it would take quite western forms.
Post-Khruschev's ("sausage" and dissident) emigration by its right authoritative evolution (including political orientation of those who moved to Israel) obviously anticipated putinism.
"Donbass revolution" is that variant of the Russian anti-oligarchical revolution which can be realized at nonparticipation of intellectuals in revolution. It is revolution forerunner. The winter of 2012 showed as the dream of the Russian liberal intelligentsia of protest is realized: 100 thousand decent people walk to the street and demand fair elections (and release of Khodorkovsky).
Putin’s blitzkrieg cut off the liberal intellectuals from the people. "The Russian spring" of 2014 showed how the national dream of the revolution carried out without intellectuals would be executed.
Donbass became "export revolution". Not hundreds or thousands insurgents who will manage to reach Russia after termination of anti-terrorist operation will bring revolution to it, these exhausted people who will realize that they are betrayed and sold ”an’t bring anything except new stream of social depression. Donbass won't become detonator of future Russian revolution, it reflects it from the future.