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About Essence of the Political Struggle in Ukraine for Immediate Prospects
Baranov Anatoly 10.02.2010
As expected, Yulia Tymoshenko didn't put up with the defeat and already declared publicly that "I would never recognize legitimacy of Yanukovych's victory with such elections". Tymoshenko set the task to the lawyers to prepare for the judicial appeal of the results of voting and actually demanded to carry out the third round. It is the reaction we wrote about on the eve of voting - there simply couldn't be any other reaction.
It is necessary to say that it's not Yanukovych who won but Tymoshenko who lost. All Tymoshenko's strategy was clear a year prior to elections - to collect in the first round less, than Yanukovych but to "pick up" voices of all who are against Yanukovych to the second round - that politician was the most convenient opponent for Tymoshenko in the second round and she lost to him. Why?
The first reason - objective one: Tymoshenko behaved herself on a post of the prime minister in such a way that by the time of presidential election even irreconcilable in the past opponents in the past - Yanukovych and Yushchenko - united against her.
The second reason - subjective one: Tymoshenko's campaign was the same way talentless as Yanukovych's campaign which was besides assiduously ruining by the Russian political strategists. For some reason Tymoshenko broke away, moreover with doubtful action "She's working". Well, so, did she work out a lot? Her references to people, by the way there were too many references, played to the bottom level of perception - well, who can be touched by exclamation "My dear!" with intonations of tradeswoman from Privoz? It irritated.
As a result the west showed less activity in the second round, than the east and the south, while Tymoshenko failed to attract the voter of the east and south. It is necessary to tell, the break is slight, it's, certainly, offending. But she herself is guilty of it.
Now new political reality in Ukraine develops including under impression of the last campaign.
Some political scientists already predict basing on the fact that voting has decayed almost half-and-half, formation of two political forces in Ukraine like Whigs and Tory in England or republicans and democrats in America. But if there's something similar to it except external likeness behind this all?
At first sight there's - powerful financial and industrial force which requires political representation and is capable to have it has been developed on the east.
Financial - industrial groups are much weaker on the west but there as on the agrarian south of the USA cultural-historical generality has been developed, it also wishes to have political representations. Yushchenko was the spokesman of that interest four years ago (partly he remained), while Tymoshenko became the candidate of the West purely situationally, for having nothing better. She is not representative of certain group, she is populist, politician of Bonapartist type - it's absolutely different. Napoleon was also aspired to be the emperor of all Frenchmen, not just of Corsicans. "Corsicans" from Zapadenshchina don't want their candidate expresses also interests of "the muscovites".
If elections were won by Tymoshenko, scenario for the period after elections would be unequivocal - fraction of Party of Regions would be disintegrated and Julia Vladimirovna would generate own overwhelming majority in the current parliament, then she would receive control over ministry, carry out liquidation of "Donetsk" financial and industrial group and by following elections in Rada which would pass by the end of the year would receive analogue of "Edinaya Russia" in legislature. That is in conditions of parliamentary republic, which Ukraine is, she would receive almost absolute power. By the following presidential election Julia Vladimirovna would have chance to be re-elected already in the first round - under the Russian scenario.
Well and now let's ask ourselves - why Yanukovych is worse than Tymoshenko?
If Yanukovych would keep BYUT in the form of consolidated opposition representing interests of a half of the Ukrainian voters, he, most likely, in conditions of crisis will not stay for one presidential term. Inheritance received by him is simply monstrous - after all Tymoshenko hasn't even stipulated with Rada the budget for the year begun. Ukraine lives without budget.
It would be natural for Yanukovych's command to begin the nearest session of the Supreme Rada with a public flogging of the government for the ruined budgetary process. Already on this background to initiate a question of resignation of the cabinet.
By and large Yanukovych has already shown by voting for amendments to the law on elections that he has situational majority in Rada. I believe that it will increase in the near future due to the deputies from BYUT.
Actually it is not so favourable to Yanukovych to hurry up with Supreme Rada re-elections as then possibilities of new political players - Tygypko and Yatsenjuk will become actual. Now these politicians are without parties and that is more important without fractions in parliament, they have come up as objects of protest voting, due to the desire of the voter to see new persons on political arena. If to carry out now parliamentary elections, both of them will receive own fractions, become consolidation centers which would be necessary to be taken into consideration. If their ambitions will not become actual in the form of political structures, they will be very soon forgotten and they will receive practically nothing to the next elections. It's more convenient to Yanukovych as to not charismatic and soft politician to operate in that political space which has been already developed.
Here things went conveniently enough. Having initiated Tymoshenko's dismissal, Yanukovych will quite easily, without straining initiate investigation of activity of the prime minister. There are no doubts that it's a piece of a cake to find materials for this purpose on every operating politician in executive power. Quality of materials is not interesting, the main thing is to initiate process. It will squeeze out Tymoshenko from the legal policy and as all Julia Vladimirovna's political support keeps exclusively on her charisma, disintegration of BYUT can be predicted with 100% probability.
After that Victor Yushchenko with his small fraction in the parliament and weak party structure becomes the main spokesman of interests of the West of the country. He could become "the Ukrainian Zyuganov" at Yanukovych, always the second, always losing already in the first round. He is comfortable sparring partner for Yanukovych, unlike the real and inconvenient contender in the name of Tymoshenko.
Yanukovych should understand not worse than Tymoshenko all conveniences of "half-party" system judging from the Russian sample. He would be pushed to it from Moscow, while in Europe and the USA... For the USA as well as for Yanukovych Yushchenko is much more convenient partner. Well, Europe which is busy with own problem will not oppose anything against solidary position of the USA and the Russian Federation. By and large nobody needs Tymoshenko but for herself - it's the reverse of her charisma.
It is not believed a lot that Yanukovych being actually very skilled and provident politician will allow let someone to "cheat" him on "the second force" in the name of Tymoshenko - it would be catastrophic for him. He can understand it. Whether it is possible to force him to do situation's bidding?
That's is the essence of the political struggle in Ukraine for immediate prospects.
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