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New Great Depression Will Bring Survival of the postSoviet Countries Into a Question and Can Entail Creation of New Formation on the Place of the Soviet Union
Кalashnikov Maxim 11.07.2008
LIFE AFTER APOCALYPSE: TIME OF THE USSR-2?
So, new Great depression caused by crash of dollar system and heavy social and economic crisis all over the world is practically inevitable. It will turn out to be improbable disaster for the postSoviet countries. Again, as well as in 1922, a question of physical survival and unification of forces will arise before them.
CHALLENGE FOR THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Global crisis for the Russian Federation - as a dreadful storm for decayed ship with faulty engines. The budget of the state will lose oil incomes, world recession will lead to disappearance of financial reserves. Inflation will eat up one part, another part - necessity of emergent import purchases, one more part - can vanish together with the ruined western banks where the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the state have a fair share of monetary holdings.
The budget is holey. We will face many internal crises: shortages of the electric power, deterioration of capacities in power, industries and transport. We shall collide, perhaps, deficiency of gas. Necessity of heavy money and labour expenses on development of new deposits of hydrocarbons in Eastern Siberia. Crisis of housing and communal services and a decayed housing facilities. Attacks of terrorists - and simultaneously with indescribable shortage of young people because of demographic failure of 1990th. Crises (they already takes place now) of food supply, shortage of qualified personnel on manufacture and mass retire of the Soviet scientific - engineering staff (whose shift is not prepared) are on hand.
That is, the Russian Federation will turn into a zone of huge crisis of subinvestment, into a zone of unresolved problems which have been stored up for last twenty years.
There is a threat of crisis of bank system of the Russian Federation (there is shortage of liquidity and organization), threat of proslipping of innovative model of development, threat of wasting (even before crash of dollar) of balance of payments of the federation. That is, in 2009 the Russian Federation will spend more on import, than to earn on its export finding itself before dilemma: to eat out its the financial reserves and to get into debts (a question whether it will be given a loan is - doubtful), or - devaluate rouble.
In such conditions titanic efforts on preservation of the country from catastrophe will be required from citizens of the Russian Federation and its establishment. Though position and other postSoviet countries will appear to be not better at all. More likely, even worse!
FIFTEEN "SOVEREIGN DEAD ENDS"
As a matter of fact, a question on survival will rise before each of the republics of "the first USSR".
Let's take the second on population, development and area republic: Ukraine. What does await it? Sharp energy crisis. Shortage of oil and gas. All same "charms" of physical deterioration of technosphere and exhaustion of human resources, as in the Russian Federation only in sharper form. Plus to it - obvious threat of appearance of the Islamic fundamentalist state of the Tatar separatists in the Crimea with inevitable war. Failed hopes for integration into EU and for the generous economic help of the Europeans (they won't think of Ukraine - they also will have to survive). Plans of introduction into the NATO also threaten to fail: who will finance all this in conditions of new Great depression? Who will invest enormous sums in construction of system of pipelines around of the Russian Federation - so they at that go through Ukraine? Europe doesn't need transit dependence on astable, poor "country", especially in conditions of global crisis. Citizens of Ukraine will find out themselves in growing old and dying out republic with insignificant budget, with degrading industry and social sphere, with stagnating building industry and agriculture. With lost merchant fleet. With decaying railways. With dangerous split of the republic on the Ukrainian West and Center - and on the Russian Southwest resisting violent Ukrainization. With eternal political buffoonery and succession of governments replacing each other. With full absence of prospects for normal life...
Belarus will end up with nothing: there is neither money, nor hydrocarbons, industrial base - is out-of-date, demographic crisis - here you are. There are no chances to get into Europe.
Kazakhstan will see that energy feedstock does not provide former incomes. That technologically it's - a backward republic, the weakest in the military relation, at that very rich with minerals. That is the reason China looks at Kazakhstan with desire: it needs to direct somewhere energy of hundreds millions jobless young men besides because of demographic policy of authorities deprived of women. China needs new vital space. Kazakhstan for People's Republic of China - an ideal field for gain.
Establishment of former Soviet republics of Central Asia realizes with horror that it's - in a dead end. There are no prospects of help from the West, while uncontrollable growth of the population of republics is on hand. Its poverty, adherence to Islamic-fundamentalist ideas is deeper, readiness of miserable mass to cut out former ruling clique is greater. Masters of Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan and Тurkmenia will understand that their territories sharply need fresh water, that Syr-Darya and Amu-Darya are bailed out. Neither China, nor Europe, nor the USA, nor Saudi Arabia, nor Turkey will provide them with water for any money. That only the Russians with its great Siberian rivers have water.
It will be found out at once that China gives eye-teeth for Siberia, to win in parallel Central Asia with its the most fertile loess soils - and then to turn the Siberian rivers there having irrigated deserts. So that in former Soviet Central Asia to settle a pair of hundreds millions souls, to arrange here a new granary of subcelestial half-and-half with its oil-and-gas "tank". It will become clear that Chinese strain after hydropower resources of Tadjikistan, after its coin box of rare minerals, after uranium of Uzbekistan, after gas of Turkmenia. There is no one to protect from such expansion of local "sovereigns"...
Georgia will find itself before the nightmare. It will appear that nobody takes it to Europe. It will appear it's - divided territory with poor (and dying out) population and noncompetitive economy. That nobody, in general, needs its vines and resorts. That no golden showers are being awaited after placing of bases of the NATO in Georgia.
It will there and then be found out, that China sleeps and sees how to catch Siberia, how in parallel to win Central Asia with its (her) the most fertile loessial почвами - and then to develop (unwrap) in it (her) the Siberian rivers, having irrigated deserts. So that in former Soviet Central Asia to settle a pair of hundreds millions souls that will arrange here a new granary Celestial half-and-half with its (her) oil-and-gas "tank." It becomes clear, that Chinese are pulled to hydropower resources of Tadjikistan and to his (its) coin box of the rare minerals, to uranium of Uzbekistan, to gas Туркмении. And to protect from such expansion local "суверенов" and there is nobody...
Georgia appears before the nightmare. It appears, nobody takes her (it) to Europe. It appears, she (it) - the divided (shared) territory with a beggar (and dying out) the population and noncompetitive economy. That its (her) fault and resorts, in general, are necessary for nobody. That is not expected any showers of gold from occurrence in Georgia of bases of the NATO.
Azerbaijan will understand that it turned out to be apple of discord between Iran and Turkey. That its army cannot win even 20% of republic seized by the Karabakh Armenians. Whence could be taken forces to resist to strong regular armies of the Turk and Persians?
And so on. Each "sovereignty" will understand that it's doomed in conditions of deep world crisis. And then...
TIME TO UNITE
At this moment Moscow should address surrounding republics with strategic offer. In fact it is clear that anybody from abroad will come to help. It means that struggle against system crisis that has struck the whole world and all postSoviet space will demand extreme mobilization of forces. Here all Russian (and even - Soviet) scientific, industrial, personnel and high school potential which is still being at the command of the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, etc. is required.
In such script of the future grandiose joint projects of development in all spheres are necessary: from space and transport corridors up to housing construction. It will become clear to all that it is necessary to work up in common hydrocarbons of Eastern Siberia to support survival of all. To create a powerful granary in Central Asia following the formula "Water - from us, a part of foodstuffs, minerals, hundred-percent loyalty - from you". That it's necessary to struggle in common with epidemics, with terrorism and even with threat of external intrusions. To develop together housing and communal services and power economy of a new type. To create together powerful metallurgical and machine-building alliances capable to enter the world market and to develop themselves.
Then, probably, something like the USSR-2 will appear on the postSoviet space. More perfect and flexible Union deprived of lacks of the first USSR. Not so centralized as former, with much more independence of republics but categorically - with strong joint systems of defense, power, transport, science, education. Without exhausting of the Russian people, without groundless swapping of resources from the Russian Federation to other republics, with greater basing on local forces. Instead - innovative Union, with application of many breakthrough technologies allowing to solve the main tasks with much smaller expenses of resources, energy, work and money. For example, with the help of technology of eternal roads making from the basalt material, not demanding for tens years repair.
It's necessary to prepare to such turn of events in Moscow already today. There is, alas, no time, many opportunities have been worthlessly lost during 90th and "zero" year. The more important not to lose time now. For the coming storm will bring to attention a question of survival not only of the Russian Federation but also of all other postSoviet "sovereignties"...
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