What Do Politial Sientists Pass over in Silene

What Do Politial Sientists Pass over in Silene
atayna Volkova 28.07.2013

According to preliminary data, on August, 12-13 Vladimir Putin plans trip to Iran which, most likely, will become the first visit of the foreign head of state after inauguration of the president Hassan Roukani planned for August, 3. Political scientists briskly discuss Putin's chances to reach agreement on the Iranian nuclear problem. It should be noted at once that no one is going to solve this problem outside virtual reality created by journalists and their colleagues speech writers of politicians, Putin's visit is connected with the Russian and Iranian arms supplies to the Syrian government, with the Russian projects in Iran and strategy of Assad’s friends.

In the light of the latest events in the Middle East it is possible to find explanation for the events happening in our parliament, press, on streets and law enforcement bodies. In 1969 or 1970 Venedikt Yerofeev wrote ingenious, it is possible to say visionary poem "Moscow — Petushki". In the chapter "85th kilometer — Orekhovo-Zuyevo" hero reflects: "I should notice that homosexuality has been eliminated in our country though finally, but not entirely. Or rather, entirely, but not completely. more truly even so: entirely and completely, but not finally. What do public have now on mind? Only one homosexuality. Well, may be also Arabs, Israel, the Golan Heights, Moshe Dayan. Well, if to banish Moshe Dayan from the Golan Heights and to reconcile Jews with Arabs? — what will remain then in the heads of people? Only true homosexuality".

Moshe Dayan died after edition of Yerofeev’s book, he wasn’t expelled from the Golan Heights and Arabs weren’t reoniled with Jews, everything became slightly more difficult. During the period when Dmitry Medvedev was registered as the president, the Russian government had nothing to oppose to the American pressure, Russia cancelled the contract for delivery of ZRK S-300PMU-1 and Persians filed a lawsuit; now Snowden ame to us with a bag of gifts and most likely Putin will resume negotiations about deliveries of these or more advaned, but less ompleted systems ZRK S-300VM. If Iran takes them, it can affect relevant decisions of India or even such opponents of Iran as Turkey and Saudi Arabia to which these complexes were also offered.

If to look at these events in wider context, it is possible to note that the Russian armada collected at random by the Syrian coast already totals 16 ships and vessels, the pro-Iranian militia Hezbollah from Lebanon, officers of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution from Iran and the Shiite rebels representing majority of the population of Iraq successfully operates on Assad's side; Russia is the only not Shiite participant of this coalition.

Coalition is resisted by interests of Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan together with some emirates of the Persian Gulf. Assad as he is doesn’t especially interferes with them, but they don't accept prospect of strengthening of Shiite Caspian and Mediterranean belt which is represented by Iran — Shiite territories of Iraq — Syria — Lebanon. Assad's defeat would transfer key link of this chain under control of Sunnites and would considerably weaken Iran, however it would strengthen the third group.

The third group of players consists of the USA, Al-Qaeda, Libya, Hamas and some smaller groups. Recent events in Egypt brought to arrest of the former leader of Islamic brotherhood of the president Murcia in connection with suspicion in espionage in favor of the USA substantially weakened this coalition.

Expanded Egyptian-Israeli cooperation against organizations "Al-Qaeda on the Sinai Peninsula", "Majilis Shura Al-mujakhidin", "Al-Tawhid Wal Jihad" and other participants of "Free army on Sinai" was one more hard blow for it. Israel allowed the Egyptian generals to strengthen police contingent on demilitarized peninsula with the help of efficient army units and to support them with fighting helicopters that led to tactical successes of the second coalition. The Gaza Strip was blocked from the Egyptian side that cut "Free army" from Hamas militants off, many fighters were killed, many important captured were taken prisoners including the head of programs of the chemical weapon of Al-Qaeda Dr. Ramzi Muvafi.

Reaction of the USA was characterized by extreme nervousness. Except political measures, such as organization of the European appeal to terminate prosecution of "Muslim Brotherhood" in Egypt, leak of information about the Israeli attacks in Syria directed on aggravation of relations between Russia and Syria, on the one hand, and Israel - on the other, inspiration of the European economic boycott of the Jewish settlements on West Bank declared by baroness Catharine Asheton, notifiations about possibility of termination of military help to Egypt and ultimatum put forward to Israel by the Secretary of the State Kerry with the requirement to recede from the Palestinian territories or not to object to nuclear weapons of Iran, the Americans also took measures of military character.

Amphibious transport dock "San Antonio" with airgroup and eight hundred marines onboard entered into the Red Sea and took position opposite to the Egyptian coast. The same maneuver was made by "Kearsarge", huge all-purpose landing ship "Wasp" with its airgroup and 1800 marines. Taking into account recent arrival of the contingent of the American marines to the neighbouring Jordan and continuous presence of thousands of military personnel from the 1st cavalry division of army of the USA as peacekeepers on the Sinai Peninsula, it would seem strange that the USA in addition brought marines divisions on aviation station of Naval Forces Sigonella on Sicily and on the base of Moron in Spain to 60-minutes notie.

Nevertheless, population of the port of Suez started being nervous only after the embassy of the USA in Egypt “to alm down” wrote on its site: "We disprove untrue reports in the Egyptian press that the American military ships are in close proximity to Arabian Peninsula and the Suez Canal for the purpose of preparation of military intervention to Egypt". Nevertheless, the Egyptian generals weren't impressed and continued operations, while Americans confusedly explained that they worry only that if Egyptians would offend the Muslim Brotherhood, the last would block the Suez Canal whereas the USA care only of freedom of navigation.

Part of the management of the Muslim Brotherhood, including "man of iron" of the movement Dr. Mahmoud Izzat, has already appeared in the Gaza Strip and prepares on their ommand post in Gaza Beah Hotel attack against the Egyptians coordinated with Hamas and Sinai Beduins-Salafists. Help of the USA, the UN and the European Union directed to Gaza will be soon shared between Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood and be spent on organization of actions of the third coalition against Assad's governments in Syria, Netanyahu in Israel and generals in Egypt as well to destabilization of situation in Gulf States to frighten the Saudi, Kuwaiti and other emirs and sheikhs of a ghost of "Arab spring", to compel them to leave the second coalition and to ask protection from the Americans.

Americans will limit for a while their participation in the Syrian war to deliveries of small arms to terrorists. A lot will depend on what Putin will manage to convince ayatollah Khamenei who ontrols Iran and treats president Hassan Rouhani with even bigger mistrust, than his predecessor.

At last the Russian list of countries which military personnel acquainted with classified information can enter is expanded by directive of the chief of the General Staff, however suh ountries as Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and Libya also disappeared from it as Syria (for obvious reasons — opportunity to be taken prisoner to fighters). It seems to me that leading mass media of Russia are right that they don't discuss why Putin goes to Iran, what happens in the Middle East and who is against whom. It is better to talk on fashionable subjects using such rich word as homosexuality.

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