Nobody in the Islamic world including Caucasusis doubtful that the USAlost the war in Iraqand pullout of English-American occupational troops is a question of the nearest year. Inevitable is following leaving of the USA and NATO from Afghanistan may be only but for German people in Kunduz and Uzbek Termez.
It will be possible also to avoid large-scale military operation of the USA against Iraq. It became clear not even on the 7th of November when Democratic Party of the USA won elections and Minister of Defence Ramsfeld as a result was forced to resign, but already in summer when forces competing with «band Cheyney-Ramsfeld» inside the American investigation services gave o their English friends a hint thanks to which catastrophic acts of terrorism prepared by Pakistan over Atlantics were prevented. Those acts of terrorism should have become a reason for a war with Iran as well as provocation of the 11th of September, 2001 became a reason for introducing the USA into the war against Afghanistan and Iraq. But they were not fulfilled.
Besides aggression of Israel against Lebanon which was armed and supported by Iran also failed. Thus there will be no large-scale aggression against Lebanon though restricted American or Israeli blow against «nuclear objects» is still possible but highly improbable. Even if it will take place, it will strengthen positions of the president Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad, will pull together Iranian people around him, will provoke sympathy and support all over the world.
Its doubtless that Iran has already become the main winner in the events of 2001-2007 inthe Near and Middle East. During few years it will become into the rocket-nuclear empire its also inevitable. On the other hand, the American guarantees of safety given to Turkey, countries of Arabian (Persian) Bay, Jordan after the coming refuge of the USA from Iraq and Afghanistan are seriously devaluated. In such conditions, as Ive just seen by visiting capitals of the Saudi Arabia and Jordan, worry concerning their safety in the conditions of probable Iranian-Shiite expansion has been growing.
I wont deeply touch the theme of religious discord. Authorative Moslem scientists did it better, they doubted if its possible at all to consider Shiite followers Moslems and were closer to the negative answer to such complicated question. But, of course, the problem is not in Shiite heresy as it is but in that real danger which very soon will be represented for the neighbours-Moslems Iran acting under the slogans of Shiite hegemonism and hardly hidden Persian nationalism.
Principal political decision to begin realization of their own nuclear programs in coordination with each other and Pakistan has been taken by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Meanwhile the works will be carried out with peaceful means. But as soon as real rocket-nuclear threat from the part of Iran will appear, they will acquire military trend. The second important direction practically independent Iraqi Kurdistan which has become home to terrorists committing crimes on the territory of Turkey. Thats why earlier or later Turkey will be compelled to introduce its troops into the North of Iraq.
At last, the third. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan took final decision to support Iraqi Moslems-Sunni who became victims of mass acts of terrorism from the part of supported by the Americans governmental Shiite armies and police of Iraq as well as their branches «squadrons of death» in face of «Bards Group» and «Mahdis Army». Leading Islamic countries are planning to bank not on Iraqi «Al-Kaida» capable of subversive activity and peasant war against Americans but on former members of the party BAAS military men, police men, employees of «Muhabarat». That is because only they can organize effective defense of Baghdad and «Sunnites triangle» in case of practically inevitable large-scale Shiite armed aggression directly supported by army of Iran and formations of Corps of Guards of Islamic Revolution.
This circumstance is being analyzed with interest in the world press. In particular, Washington Press has recently noticed that «Saudi Arabia is ready to reconsider its principles of non-interference in the situation in Iraq as soon as kingdom is seriously обеспокоено by possible genocide in connection with Sunnites minority in case of leaving of the USA Iraq». «In February 2003, - the newspaper writes, - a month before already historical intrusion of the USA in Iraq Saudian Minister of Foreign Affairs prince Saud al-Fejsal warned the president Bush that «having solved one problem, he would provoke five new» hinting on the desire of the American leadership to fight regime of Saddam Hussein using military force.
If the president of the USA listened to the wise advice of his Eastern partner, Iraq today wouldnt be on the verge of civil war and decay of statehood». Slip made shouldnt be by a new mistake, ambassador of Saudi Arabia in the USA, former head of foreign investigation service of kingdom Turky al-Fejsal thinks.
«The fact that the American armies entered Iraq «without knocking» doesnt mean that they should leave it so soon, he announced. In this case Saudi Arabia will be compelled to make large-scale intervention into Iraq to defense Sunnites minority being terrorized from the part of Shiite after defeat of Husseins regime».
«Already previous year leaders of Egypt, Jordan as well as other Arabian and Moslems countries altogether with religions and clan leaders of Iraq appealed to Saudi Arabia to support Sunnites people in the occupied country with money and armament. The same is demanded by the community in Saudi Arabia which kept close connections with their religious brothers in Iraq. In conclusion among royal family influence of party of supporters of active actions in the neighbour region has been growing».
«Till the time the king Abdalla intended to discharge tension between Sunnites and Shiite according to his agreements with the USA not to enter directly: the Americans were afraid of possible conflicts between the American army and Saudi Arabian. But if the Americans will start leaving Iraq the kingdom will have to support Sunnites. Fortunately there are material and ideological conditions. Saudi Arabia being major exporter of energy carriers has significant financial potential and is also considered religious leader among Sunnites», - the newspaper appoints.
The article end as follows: «Just few months ago it seemed to be impossible that Bush would start large-scale pullout of the American troops from Iraq. However now everything has been changed».
So, its possible to think that general features of future policy of leading countries of Islamic world are defined and agreed in the whole. Its really important that these plans and actions wont be interfered by provokers either from «Al-Kaida» and other radical Islamists organizations as by the USA and especially Israel part of elite of which is obsessed by crazy idea to stop nuclear program of Iran using military way, even if its too late.
I think that one should stop provokers using way of leading explanation work in the USA and, if its possible, in Israel itself. During last few weeks I heard a lot of reproaches as in Saudi Arabia as in Caucasus. They are as follows: one well-known man, Moslem working on several projects which I am financing, besides my old friend regularly makes trips into Israel. There he takes part in actions on which from time to time can be heard appeals to Russia to enter NATO fro mutual war against Moslems, appeals to alliance of Russia with Israel having the same aims. I am not only aware of such trips but also support my friend. He very convincingly explains to Israeli and with its help American audience all harmfulness of the policy which the USA and Israel conduct against Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, warns it from prevocational steps, points out possible negative consequences of provocations and foolish things. I consider all these to be useful.
As to the appeals to Russia to make an alliance with the USA, NATO and Israel against Islamic world, first of all, it cant become true anyway, this all is not serious. Secondly, as long as I know, such appeals were pronounced by non-Moslems.