We already informed about round table which took place on the telechannel лнфV in which director of the Center of research of conflicts of Institute of problems of globalization, a member of Editorial board of FORUM.msk, political scientist Anton Surikov participated.
In the coarse of discussion Anton Surikov expressed an opinion that the greatest advantage of new cold war which USA now imposes on Russia will be received not by the USA but by China.
"It is a certain imitation, - the political scientist said about new cold war, - though, certainly, consequence of what occurs both in the Near East and in connection with Russia can be not toylike but serious.... The next stage of disintegration can be consequence of so-called new cold war which is imposed on us. If to consider disintegration of the USSR as the first stage, now we have certain pause, as a result of new cold war there can happen disintegration of the Russian Federation in a literal meaning and the greatest advantage will really be got by China".
By way of round table anchorman asked Anton Surikov a question about civilization accessory of Russia. The following dialogue took place as a result:
- I absolutely precisely attribute Russia to a western civilization. It is a separate type but it's within the limits of the western European civilization, disregarding the fact there is a significant Muslim population in Russia.
- Whether it will agree with you?
- It's a difficult question. Significant part of the Muslim population is represented by Tatars in particular who for a long time live with Russian. And then, in the Europe there are also Muslim enclaves. For example, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Albania. Therefore it is a complicated question. But in general Russia, certainly, is western, European civilization. As to the subjects of so-called new cold war. On the one hand, I consider, that one of subjects will continue to remain the USA. In some form in alliance with other countries of the West at all the contradictions which exist on the West. In particular, between so called Old Europe and the USA. That is in any case one of the poles will be the West headed by the USA. The second pole, I think, not now but some time after, in 10-20 years will be China. And it will be aspired to unite in one or other form around itself the key centers in developing world. For today it looks like it will be the countries rich with a source of raw materials. For example, Iran, Venezuela, maybe, some other countries. As to Russia, it, certainly, for the present did not take place as the state. There never was in history such a state as the Russian Federation. Russia historically is Soviet Union. Now a new state is being created practically from the beginning. Centers, forces which are being preparing to the inevitable collision want to get more comfortable geopolitical positions, first of all the West. It, also on the part of Russia, tries to get position precisely due to the territory, raw materials.
- Your words that Russia is not a might-have-been state are weighty. Proceeding from the borders of history, I do not think that the Russian Federation strongly differs from those territories which belonged to Russia in 17-18 centuries.
- We did not live in 17-18 centuries.
- I studied a map. There was Russian empire, the Soviet Union, now there's the Russian Federation. I understand, that social structures vary, but territories, people remain.
- I shall say, that historically Russia is the Soviet Union.
- There is no Islamic world in your analysis.
- Firstly, Iran is - Shiite Islam. There are no so angry enemies to the Shiites than Moslems Sunnites and vise versa. Look, what occurs in the same Iraq. The Muslim world has no economic basis. It's necessary to have economy to become the center of force. It is impossible to extract simply oil, to sell it to the West or to the same China, to India and to have money in the Swiss banks. The Islamic world will be arena of collision for other world centers of force.
Further, having touched in the course of the discussion, the theme of the nuclear program of Iran Anton Surikov said:
"It is possible to argue a lot about the details, about who and what tries to receive in some time and who and what can do. Let's think about the other thing. what is the reason of such aggravation? It is a fruit of policy of the USA which is being realized with coming to power of present administration. It initially had the purpose of an establishment of the direct American control over oil resources of Persian Gulf. For this purpose the USA intruded Iraq and for the sake of it the threats to Iran were initially distributed.
No it is clear that Americans sufferred catastrophic defeat in Iraq, suffer defeat in Afghanistan, Israel sufferred defeat in Lebanon. It is clear that they will have to pull off to alternate positions, if not completely, then partially to leave this region.
On the other hand, it is clear that the republican administration leaves, that neoconservatives sufferred full breakdown and actually it is a question of how to leave Iraq, in what terms, in what form. Therefore an impact across Iran is possible. But it will be a kind of convulsion, screen to the departure, but there will be no long term aggression.
As to the nuclear program of Iran. It is the same argument as ostensibly availability of the nuclear or biological weapon at Saddam Hussein which never was found. These are the invented things. Though theoretically Iran also can be understood: it would be quite expedient for Iran to have the rocket-nuclear weapon so that in the long term not to found oneself in such position as Yugoslavia or Afghanistan. If Iran had a nuclear weapon, means of its delivery to the USA, it would never came to the mind of Americans to threaten them".
In conclusion Anton Surikov gave the following forecast:
"I consider that impact of the USA across Iran is possible. If it takes place, it will be, first of all, the limited impact and, secondly, it will be the impact caused by the intraAmerican political reasons. This is the first thing.
The second. I would not began to idealize Iran and to say that everything there is consolidated. According to my representations, there are serious disagreements there between the present president and the former president who has the majority in Advice of Ulemas on the fact and between the present president and the spiritual leader, though it's not advertised.
Now as to the United States. The policy of the USA, a policy of neoconservatives in the region has failed, militarily the USA will leave the region and, leaving, they will try to create a situation of chaos, setting Sunnittes and Shiites against each other.... If to provoke it, there is the ground there for conflicts. Also it is possible to expect inflating of conflicts of the same type as Iraqi involving there on the one hand Iran, on the other hand Saudi Arabia and other Arabian countries, inflating of the conflict in Afghanistan, of international, interconfessional and other conflicts in a number of other regions. It's quite possible that Americans would like to create such situation there. Then situation in the whole world will shift into another level".