After processing of more than 40% of votes Putin wins 63,88% of votes, the Central Electoral Commission data testifies. It is clear that the result is close to definitive, but isn't clear what is the reason for this overrun in 10 percent without which he would pass in the first round? Whom did he “bend" this time?
Let's not talk about peculiar preferences of the national voter. We are not children.
According to the Central Electoral Commission, Zyuganov has 17,24%, Prokhorov — 7,1%, Zhirinovsky — 6,93%, Mironov — 3,73% of voices. Last two were especially “bent". Zhirinovsky is simply obsolete, while Mironov, probably, behaved not as pet dog should behave. Prokhorov, on the contrary, was erected in a rank of the politician of the national scale – unless someone would doubt (being on the third place he doesn’t care whether he has 7 or 14 percent).
Zyuganov is separate question. When we with Golovenko discussed a deal of future Churov’s pool all of made correct forecast – he would get more than all the rest, but less, than his party on the last elections. Zyuganov has also become outdated, it is high time to change him. Though why he was presented more than 17 percent when it was possible to give him 15-16? Or it’s not been decided to write him off or to make use for some more time?
By the way, now Zyuganov is the only one who doesn’t recognize the results of elections - however, it has already happened. It would last a day or two. Actually, all parliamentary parties don't have indisputable leaders.
But as a whole additional 10 percent received by "“Russiabashi” is obviously a message to non-system opposition. Propagandists of the power have been talking about "orange threat" for so long that, seemingly, convinced theselves of it - at more or less decent surplus in 52 percent there is, of course, risk of recalculation. But in Russia, unlike Ukraine, no one would demand it. Maidan threat... It’s somehow ephemeral, but 64% of the national leader, obviously, is the answer to this ephemeral threat. They obviously are afraid of something superfluous...
The problem of protest actions in Russia is their distinct extra-class character. I am not talking about "iron steps of proletariat" – there’s no bourgeoisie protest as a class. There is not structured civil protest where everyone protests from himself and for himself. Such protest can be very bright and even very mass, but can't be steady and long-term. That’s what power lean on and does it obviously enough.
Unlike opposition meetings, the power gathers own let them be even involuntary supporters in organized order - whole enterprises, educational institutions, at last, simply battalions.
Moreover, the great bulk of participants of "roundabouts", falsifiers in electoral commissions and other - are those very "insulted and humiliated" - the workers, the state employees whose interests the Russia intelligentzia has been defending last 150 years. "The insulted and humiliated" take small bribe or simply out of shyness go and vote, moreover not one time. No, they, certainly, don’t suffer love to the national leader. But they don’t feel hatred, especially class one as well - yes, not many of them are satisfied with their life, but they haven't learned to connect their minor problems with "big bosses" yet. They even understand this relation, but don't feel it, they vote as always – by heart.
It bitter to recognize, but the weakest link of the Russian opposition in prospect is the left movement - they don’t have real mass class support. Two-three small trotskyist’s organizations really work with people all over the country and the most mass left-wing party - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - never in its history initiated any protest action and never was there active participant. Though oppositional movement doesn't have prospect without class component – non-structured individual protest will soon exhaust and they in the Kremlin understand it very well. Putin's superfluous 10 percent is a message aside this party.
The prospect is very heavy. Here you are, in the comment to one fresh note one of the readers cites: "... The ugliest thing that can happen in human life is yoke of slavery. The one who wants to remain cowardly slave, can't have honor for because of it he would inevitably enter into collisions with these or those hostile forces. Contrary to converses honor of the nation is something real-life. Peoples having no desire to defend their honor earlier or later will lose freedom and independence that, eventually, will be fair, for worthless generations deprived of honor don't deserve to enjoy blessings of freedom." We lived to such times when citation from Hitler sounds in Russia as inadmissible, simply extremist appeal to freedom!
However the most sad and ridiculous simultaneously is that the majority of strikes at the industrial enterprises - and the reason for participation in the organized votings for "United Russia" and Putin are determined by one and the same threat - threat of closing of the enterprise! It’s a lie that proletariat has nothing to lose, except its chains - it can lose its unenviable status of proletarian - and to turn to the beggar, the vagabond.
State employees undergo the same situation, only even more cynical. The authorities managed to convince the workers of budgetary sphere – generally educated people - doctors, teachers that their budgetary financing directly depends on how they will vote for this power. What is especially dreadful is that – if they do it "badly", they are really infringed in financing! At times they are even convinced that opposition is direct threat to their semi-poor but stable existence.
All these should be changed – it’s necessary to work with people, to explain them true underlying reason of things, to develop mechanisms of struggle, mechanisms of protection of their interests together with them. Interests of oppositional movement go secondarily.
If we don't organize this spring class protest, Putin will become stronger and we won't knock him over for next twelve years. Objectively he has no possibility to carry out those pre-election pledges which he has given. Moreover, general situation in economy will worsen to the middle of this year and that will have very serious social consequences. We should prepare society for protection of interests of the society before the power. The word "strike" should become habitual.
Putin 2.0 is objectively interested in "crackdown". It is necessary not to allow him to do it – then he should go on a policy of concessions: liberalization of the political legislation, appearance of new real parties, growth of importance of local government, admission of political organizations on enterprises, liberalization of mass-media. In the long term – early elections of the State Duma, ideally - next year. Appearance of the governors elected from opposition. Formation of real alternative to "the party in power" and personally to Putin.
This is program-minimum for the nearest year - one and a half year.
ánatoly Baranov, editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk